Europe Opened Red. Wall Street Futures Went Green

Europe's main indexes are down close to 1% and Brent is back over $100, yet Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.58%. Technology was the only sector to rise Wednesday, and it's now the largest position in the even-weight strategy.

Brad Roth
October 01, 2026

TL;DR

• The FTSE 100 is down 1.29% and the Euro Stoxx 50 0.71% as Brent climbs back over $100. American futures are green, led by the Nasdaq 100.

• Technology rose 0.64% Wednesday, the only one of eleven sectors to close higher. It's 20.3% of the even-weight strategy, now its largest position.

• Core PCE came in under forecast, but the ten-year still closed at 5.311%. ISM manufacturing lands at 10:00, with the prices index expected at 72.9.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:13 AM ET, commodities, rates and currencies as of 7:19 to 7:25 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.27% at 7,736.25.

• Nasdaq 100 futures add 0.58% at 30,878.00.

• Dow futures are up 0.01% at 51,281.00.

• Russell 2000 futures are up 0.05% at 2,818.80.

The quarter closed narrow Wednesday. The S&P 500 slipped 0.21%, the Dow 0.84% and the Russell 2000 0.40%. The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.25%. Technology was the only green sector, up 0.64%. Staples finished last, down 1.53%.

• West Texas trades $92.19, up 1.96%. Brent is $100.62, up 2.64%.

• Gold is $4,199.34, up 0.30%. Silver is up 0.90% and copper is down 0.97%.

• The three-month bill yields 4.130%, the two-year 4.893%, the ten-year 5.308% and the thirty-year 5.645%.

• Euro/dollar is 1.1284, down 0.41%, and the dollar buys 158.20 yen. Volatility futures are 17.87. Bitcoin trades $83,791.

• Jobless claims land at 8:30, with 201,000 expected. ISM manufacturing follows at 10:00. Waller speaks at 10:00, one of nine Fed speakers today.

THOR Risk Gauge

Neutral. The index strategy is fully invested across all three major American indexes. The even-weight strategy holds 60.1% in three sectors and 40.5% in Treasury bills. A ten-year at 5.31% and Brent over $100 are the live risks. Core inflation under forecast and green futures are the offset.

The THOR View

Europe's open was ugly. The FTSE 100 is down 1.29%, the CAC 40 0.84% and European bank futures 1.85%. Spain sold ten-year bonds at 4.176%, up from 3.960% at its last sale. Brent is back over $100 on reports that Chinese refiners halted October fuel exports. American futures went the other way, and the dollar went with them. The euro is down 0.41% and the yen sits at 158.20. The index strategy owns only American indexes, in near-equal thirds. When global yields climb, money keeps choosing American large caps.

Technology rose 0.64% Wednesday. The other ten sectors fell. It's now 20.3% of the even-weight strategy, its largest position, ahead of healthcare at 20.1% and financials at 19.7%. That order came from price, not a trade. August core PCE rose 0.2% for the month against 0.3% expected, and 3.0% from a year ago. Cooler inflation helps companies whose value sits in future earnings. The sector closed 1.5% under its 52-week high, even with the ten-year finishing at 5.311%.

October opens with ISM manufacturing at 10:00. The headline is expected at 54.8 and the prices index at 72.9, up from 71.1. Germany's factory PMI came in at 53.9 this morning and the euro area's at 52.9, both a touch above forecast. Factory demand is the Dow's home turf. It's weighted by share price, which puts industrial and bank names near the top. The Dow is 33.0% of the index strategy, next to the Nasdaq 100 at 34.0% and the S&P 500 at 33.2%. A strong orders number lands on the Dow first. A hot prices number lands on the ten-year, and the Nasdaq 100 feels that more.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 9/30/26

Fully invested, in three even pieces. The Nasdaq 100 edged up to 34.0% after Wednesday's gain, and it leads the futures this morning. The Dow and the S&P 500 carry the industrial and broad-market legs.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 9/30/26

Technology moved to the top after the only green close of the eleven sectors. Healthcare and financials sit just under 20%. The other 40.5% sits in bills, with the three-month at 4.130%.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 9/30/26

The mix runs 58.8% equity, 15.1% commodity, 14.7% specialty currency, 5.9% alternatives and 5.3% fixed income. The dollar position is the largest line, and the euro's 0.41% slide this morning is the move it's built for. Energy, the second-largest line at 12.9%, sits under Brent back above $100.

One Thing to Watch

ISM's prices index lands at 10:00, expected at 72.9. A number above that keeps pressure on a ten-year already at 5.31%. Of the even-weight strategy's three sectors, technology at 20.3% feels long rates first.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com