The Ceasefire Gap and $96 Oil

TL;DR

A last-minute two-week ceasefire with Iran sent futures surging 2-3% overnight and collapsed oil from $110+ to $96. Both THOR systems entered today in defensive positioning. FOMC minutes drop at 1 PM ET and Friday's CPI will be the first inflation read since oil spiked above $110.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:00 AM ET

S&P 500 futures: +2.5%.

Nasdaq 100: +3.3%.

Dow: +2.3%. The ceasefire gap is real.

Trump announced a Pakistan-brokered two-week truce with Iran just before the 8 PM ET deadline Monday night. Iran agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz for safe passage while halting defensive operations. Oil collapsed. WTI crude dropped 15% to $95.67, the biggest single-session move in months. That's the trade driving everything this morning.

Gold held firm at $4,800 (+1.8%), still pricing residual geopolitical risk. Bitcoin flat at $69,000. The 10-year Treasury sits at 4.24% with CME showing 98.4% probability the Fed holds rates unchanged in April.

Asia went first: Nikkei +5.4%, KOSPI +6.9% (trading curbs triggered in Seoul), Hang Seng +3.1%. Europe opened strong with the DAX +4.7% and CAC +4.0%.

THOR Risk Gauge

Cautious

Both systems are sitting near full cash. THOR Index Rotation holds zero equity across all three indexes. THOR Low Volatility holds just two of ten sectors (Utilities and Energy) with roughly 60% in cash.

The THOR View

A 15% oil crash and 3% futures rally in a single session will get anyone's attention. The question: is a two-week conditional ceasefire with a hostile regime a structural turn, or a relief trade?

The system doesn't care about the politics. It reads price signals. And every signal across both strategies flipped to risk-off before this ceasefire was announced. THOR is mandated by design to think protection first. Yesterday was a moment where you had one clear event where the downside could have been drastically worse than the upside.

If the continuation in equity upside while the situation cools, it will bring new “risk on” allocations in the coming week. If we see deterioration in talks, and a breakdown in equity markets, its likely you won’t see many position changes.

Today will be noisy. The FOMC minutes at 1 PM cover the March meeting where the Fed held at 3.50-3.75%, but the real catalyst is Friday's CPI. That's the first inflation print since oil spiked above $110. It will tell us whether the energy shock has bled into broader prices or stayed contained.

We will see if this gap sticks meaningfully over the next few days, not hours.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation

Holdings as of 4/7/26

THOR Low Volatility

Holdings as of 4/7/26

One Thing to Watch

Friday's March CPI at 8:30 AM ET. Oil traded above $110 for weeks during the Iran escalation. If that shows up in the headline number, the "higher for longer" rate narrative gets reinforced and the Fed stays pinned. If core held steady, the ceasefire plus cratering oil could build a real case for rate relief later this year.

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Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com