The Ceasefire's Fine Print

TL;DR

Yesterday's 2.5% ceasefire rally is gone. Futures are red as Iran demands Strait of Hormuz tolls, Trump threatens 50% tariffs on Iran's weapon suppliers, and oil bounces back to $97. Both THOR systems remain in heavy cash with combined equity exposure under 22%. Core PCE, GDP, FOMC minutes, and a Powell speech all land today.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:00 AM ET

S&P 500: -0.37%.

Nasdaq 100: -0.32%.

Dow: -0.40%.

Russell 2000: -0.75%.

The ceasefire rally lasted less than 24 hours. Futures gave some back overnight as Iran pushed Hormuz toll demands and Trump fired off a 50% tariff threat on any country supplying weapons to Iran. Oil bounced from $95.67 to $97.30 on the headlines. The Russell getting hit hardest tells you small caps are already pricing recession risk.

Asia sold off: Nikkei -0.73%, Shanghai -0.72%, Hang Seng -0.54%. Europe choppy, STOXX 50 near flat.

Gold pulled back to $4,741 from $4,800. Bitcoin consolidating in the $70,500-$72,700 range below $74,500 resistance. The 10-year at 4.29%, 2-year at 3.79%, yield curve steepening at +50 bps.

Today's calendar is loaded: Core PCE and GDP at 8:30 AM, Powell speaks at 10:30 AM, FOMC minutes at 2:00 PM. The CME shows 98.4% probability the Fed holds in April.

THOR Risk Gauge

Cautious

Both systems are running at the most defensive posture in months. THOR Index Rotation holds zero equity, fully in cash and T-Bills. THOR Low Volatility carries two sectors (Utilities at 20.4% and Energy at 19.0%) with the balance in cash. Combined equity exposure across both portfolios sits under 22%. The system moved here before the conflict escalated and yesterday's ceasefire bounce didn't trigger a change. This morning's reversal reinforces the positioning.

The THOR View

A two-week ceasefire sounds good in a headline. The fine print is less reassuring.

Iran is already demanding toll payments for Strait of Hormuz passage. Trump launched a 50% tariff threat within hours of the deal. Oil is still $97, roughly 40% above pre-conflict levels. None of that reads like a structural resolution.

The system reads price signals, not press conferences. Both portfolios were in heavy cash before the ceasefire and both stayed there through yesterday's 2.5% rally. The only equity exposure sits in Utilities and Energy, both defensive sectors. This morning's red tape is doing nothing to change the signal.

Today's Core PCE print at 8:30 AM is the real test. Consensus expects 0.4% month-over-month, which is hot. That reading was gathered before oil touched $114 at the March peak. If Powell connects those dots in his 10:30 speech, yesterday's relief trade gets unwound in a hurry.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation

Holdings as of 4/8/26

THOR Low Volatility

Holdings as of 4/8/26

One Thing to Watch

Peace talks are scheduled for tomorrow, 4/10. If Iran's Hormuz toll demands don't get walked back at the table, the ceasefire's two-week window shrinks fast. Oil at $97 says the market isn't betting on a breakthrough.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com