The Chips Bounced Thursday. Friday Brought the Bill

The cost of building out AI is back in the crosshairs one session after the rebound. The even-weight strategy keeps technology near a sixth of the mix and spreads the rest across six real-economy sectors, so a mega-cap wobble lands soft. The index strategy walks in even across all three major benchmarks.

Brad Roth
June 26, 2026

TL;DR

• The chip rally that ripped Thursday faded fast. Nasdaq 100 futures are down about 1.2% Friday morning as traders re-price the cost of building out AI, with one chip name off roughly 13% before the bell.

• The damage is concentrated in mega-cap technology. Crude slid back near $70, gold gave up another $38, and the fear gauge ticked up toward 19, but the broad market is down far less than the Nasdaq.

• Both systematic strategies walk in near fully invested. Technology is the largest position in the even-weight strategy at roughly a sixth, the other six sectors near 13 to 14 percent each.

Market Pulse

As of roughly 7:45 a.m. ET, U.S. futures are lower, the selling led by technology.

• S&P 500 futures are down about 0.5%.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are off about 1.2%, out front on the tech selling.

• Dow futures are down about 0.1%, roughly 67 points.

• Russell 2000 futures are lower, tracking the risk-off tilt.

• The 10-year Treasury yields near 4.38%, the 2-year near 4.15%.

• WTI crude trades near $70.70, down about 1.2%, Brent near $74.35, both easing as the Strait of Hormuz stays open.

• Gold runs near $4,010, off about 0.9%, another leg lower this week.

• The fear gauge sits near 19, ticking higher.

• Bitcoin trades near $60,200, down about 2.3%.

• The euro trades near 1.137, the yen still pinned near multi-decade lows against the dollar.

THOR Risk Gauge

Bullish. Both systematic strategies walk into Friday near fully invested, spread across the real economy instead of mega-cap technology. The wobble this morning sits almost entirely in the AI names, and an even-weight build keeps that exposure to roughly a sixth. The market is softer and the fear gauge is creeping up, so this is conviction with eyes open, not a victory lap.

The THOR View

Here's what a tech selloff looks like through an even-weight strategy. Technology is the single largest position, near a sixth of the mix. That sounds heavy until you remember the cap-weighted benchmark runs technology closer to a third. When the AI names crack on the cost of all that buildout, the cap-weighted index takes the full hit. The even-weight strategy takes a fraction, because the other six sectors each sit near 13 to 14 percent and none lives or dies on a data-center capex number. Industrials is the second-largest position now, earned on a real economy that keeps shipping, building, and moving freight.

The index strategy tells the same story a different way. It walks in even across all three major benchmarks, a third in each. On a morning the Nasdaq is down more than ten times what the Dow is, that even split does exactly what it's built to do. The industrial-heavy benchmark barely moves while the tech-heavy one does the bleeding, and owning all three in equal measure averages the damage down instead of concentrating it.

Energy stays at zero, and crude keeps making the case. WTI is back near $70 as the Strait of Hormuz stays open and the war premium bleeds out. Those have been supply-and-headline moves, not the durable trend the system rewards with a position. So energy waits, like the defensive corners that haven't confirmed. The strategies own what's working and skip what isn't.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 6/25/26

All three benchmarks read risk-on and the strategy is fully invested, a third in each. The even split across the industrial, broad, and tech-heavy indexes is the cushion on a morning like this one.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 6/25/26

Technology is the largest position and still only about a sixth of the mix, the other six active sectors clustered near 13 to 14 percent. Energy, staples, and healthcare sit at zero, none having confirmed a trend worth owning. The build is even-weight by design, so no single sector, including the one selling off this morning, gets to swing the whole result.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 6/25/26

The diversified strategy runs about 58 percent equity, 22 percent commodity, 11 percent specialty currency, and roughly 8 percent fixed income. The gold-strategy position anchors the commodity side at the top of the table, a short-yen position expresses the currency view, and an interest-rate hedge sits alongside Treasuries on the bond side. On a morning equities, gold, and crypto are all lower together, that four-asset spread is why the strategy doesn't track the equity names in a straight line.

One Thing to Watch

Watch whether the selling stays trapped in mega-cap technology or leaks into the real-economy sectors that make up most of the even-weight strategy. So far industrials, materials, and utilities are steady while the AI names do the falling. If that split holds into the close, it's the cleanest case going for spreading the bet instead of crowding the megacaps.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com