The Chips Roared Back. Now Inflation Gets a Vote

One blowout memory report reignited the AI bid that cracked for three straight sessions, and futures opened broadly green into this morning's inflation read. The even-weight strategies spread across seven real-economy sectors clustered tight, and the index strategy walks in across all three major benchmarks.

Brad Roth
June 25, 2026

TL;DR

• A blowout memory-chip report reignited the AI trade that had cracked for three sessions, the reporting company up about 17% before the open and the growth benchmark leading futures higher.

• The calm is uneven. The fear gauge fell back near 16.8 and oil slid to pre-conflict levels as the Strait of Hormuz reopens, but gold sold off a third straight day and the May inflation read at 8:30 is the morning's real test.

• Both systematic strategies walk in near fully invested, technology held to roughly a sixth of the even-weight mix across seven sectors, the index strategy spread evenly across all three major benchmarks.

Market Pulse

As of roughly 7:30 a.m. ET, U.S. futures are broadly higher, the chip names leading a bounce after three rough sessions.

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.46%.

• Nasdaq 100 futures add 1.15%, out front on the memory report.

• Dow futures are up 0.46%.

• Russell 2000 futures are higher, the small caps tracking the broad bid.

• The 10-year Treasury yields near 4.49%, the 2-year near 4.2%, ahead of the 8:30 release.

• WTI crude trades near $69.50, down about 1.2%, back to pre-conflict levels as Strait of Hormuz traffic resumes. Brent sits near $72.60.

• Gold runs near $4,000, off about 2.7%, a third straight session of haven selling.

• The VIX sits near 16.8, back down after spiking near 20 mid-week.

• Bitcoin trades near $61,200, steady.

• The euro trades near 1.136 with the dollar firmer, the yen pinned near 161.9 against it, close to a 40-year low.

THOR Risk Gauge

Bullish. Both strategies walk into the morning near fully invested, spread across the real economy with technology held well under the third a cap-weighted index runs. The fear gauge has come back near 16.8, and oil at pre-conflict levels takes some pressure off the inflation picture. The check on the morning is the 8:30 read, landing on a Fed that has already put a hike back in the conversation, so the green open is a setup, not a settlement.

The THOR View

One memory-chip report did what three days of selling could not, reigniting the AI bid and sending the growth benchmark to the front of the board. The even-weight strategy gets some of that bounce, technology is its single largest sector, but it owns the move at roughly a sixth of the mix rather than the third a cap-weighted index carries. That same cap is why the strategy did not take the full hit on the way down this week. Underneath technology the construction spreads across seven real-economy sectors clustered between 13% and 16%, barely three points top to bottom. There is no single bet riding on whether this bounce holds through the inflation read.

Materials is the position worth a look this morning. Gold fell a third straight session and the broader metals complex has been selling with it, yet the sector sits in the even-weight strategy near an eighth of the mix. The distinction matters. The materials position is levered to industrial and chemical demand across the real economy, not to the precious-metals trade that has been bleeding as havens unwind. The system owns the cyclical side that moves with growth, and leaves the metals speculation to the commodity desks.

Energy stays at zero. Crude has now round-tripped its entire war premium, back to pre-conflict levels as Strait of Hormuz traffic resumes, and a supply-driven slide like that is the kind of move the system reads as noise rather than trend. The index strategy walks in spread evenly across all three major benchmarks, the blue-chip average back to a full third alongside the S&P and the growth index. Both strategies sit near fully invested into the 8:30 number, expressing conviction in the real economy rather than flinching ahead of a data point.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 6/24/26

All three benchmarks read risk-on near a third each, the blue-chip average back to full weight alongside the S&P and the growth index. The strategy walks into the inflation read fully spread, with cash effectively nil and no single index carrying the morning.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 6/24/26

Seven sectors carry weight between 13% and 16%, with energy, healthcare, and consumer staples still out. The tight spread is the point: built across the real economy rather than concentrated in whatever led last. The three at zero have not confirmed the trend the others have.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 6/24/26

The mix runs about 59% equity, 22% commodity, 11% specialty and currency, and 8% fixed income. The commodity side is anchored by a buffered gold-income position, which is why a three-day slide in gold spot does not read straight through to the strategy. The currency bucket carries a yen-short on the dollar-strength view with the yen near a 40-year low, and a rate hedge sits against this morning's inflation read.

One Thing to Watch

The 8:30 inflation read is the morning's hinge, with consensus looking for the headline to accelerate from April. A hot number lands on a Fed that has already floated a hike for the first time this cycle, which would press the rate-sensitive corners the even-weight strategy holds at full weight, real estate and utilities among them. Watch whether the chip-led bounce can hold once the number clears, or whether it was a one-report reprieve.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com