The Consumer Gets Graded Twice Before the Fed Decides

Brad Roth
October 27, 2026

TL;DR

• The Conference Board's confidence survey lands at 10:00, and Visa reports its fiscal fourth quarter today. Both are a read on the American shopper, one day before the Fed decides.

• Financials are 20.4% of the even-weight strategy. S&P Global and PayPal both beat on earnings this morning, and Visa is next.

• Technology led all eleven sectors Monday, up 1.69%. The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.11% and now runs 32.8% of the index strategy.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:22 AM ET, commodities as of 7:14 AM ET, yields as of 7:00 to 7:25 AM ET, currencies as of 7:17 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.31% at 7,700.50.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.47% at 29,411.90.

• Dow futures are up 0.24% at 52,487.60.

• Russell 2000 futures are up 0.37% at 2,796.80.

Monday flipped Friday's script. The S&P 500 rose 0.71%, the Nasdaq 100 1.11% and the Dow 0.31%. Technology led at 1.69%, then industrials at 1.42% and consumer discretionary at 1.03%. Communication services was the weakest sector, down 1.57%.

• Brent is $109.79, down 0.86%. West Texas is $100.87, down 0.87%.

• Gold is $4,023.15, down 0.38%. Silver is off 1.49% and copper is up 1.29%.

• The three-month bill yields 4.149%, the two-year 4.695% and the ten-year 4.970%. The 30-year is 5.296%.

• Euro/dollar is 1.1150. The dollar buys 157.66 yen. Volatility futures are 18.93. Bitcoin closed Monday near $79,950.

• Durable goods orders land at 8:30, with a 2.0% gain expected. Consumer confidence and new home sales follow at 10:00. Treasury sells five-year notes at 1:00.

THOR Risk Gauge

Neutral, unchanged from last week. Yields are easing and Monday's gains reached most sectors, but Brent still sits near $110. The Fed decides tomorrow, with Microsoft and Alphabet reporting that evening. The index strategy is fully invested, and the even-weight strategy runs 60.6% in stocks with 40.0% in Treasury bills.

The THOR View

Today is the consumer's turn. The Conference Board's confidence index lands at 10:00, with economists looking for 81.2 after 81.9 in September. Then Visa reports. Wall Street expects $3.44 a share on $12.09 billion in sales. A survey tells you how shoppers feel. Visa's payment volume tells you what they actually spent.

Financials are 20.4% of the even-weight strategy, and this is the sector's week. People think of financials as banks. Visa, S&P Global and PayPal live in the same sector, and they earn fees on activity, not a spread on loans. That matters with the two-year at 4.695% and the ten-year at 4.970%. A fee business doesn't need the curve to steepen to grow. It needs people to keep swiping and companies to keep issuing debt.

The morning's early reports leaned the right way. S&P Global earned $4.58 a share against $4.42 expected, on $3.68 billion in sales. The stock is up 2.74% before the open. PayPal beat on earnings at $1.45 against $1.31, though sales came in light. Visa is one of the largest companies in the sector and a Dow member... so its report reaches both systematic strategies.

The index strategy watched leadership swap sides Monday. Friday, the Dow fell 1.23% while the Nasdaq 100 finished flat. Monday ran the other way. The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.11% and the Dow 0.31%. The three pieces still sit within 1.3 points of each other, at 34.1% Dow, 33.4% S&P 500 and 32.8% Nasdaq 100.

Technology is 19.1% of the even-weight strategy, and it led all eleven sectors Monday at 1.69%. Nvidia rose 2.39% and Microsoft 1.54%. Corning beat this morning, $0.91 a share against $0.88, and trades up 2.38% before the open. Seagate, NXP and F5 report later today.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 10/26/26

Fully invested in three near-equal pieces. Friday rewarded the Dow's side, Monday the Nasdaq 100's, and the strategy held both.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 10/26/26

Three sectors plus 40.0% in bills, all within two points of each other. Hospital operator HCA beat this morning and trades up 5.32% before the open. The system owns trends that have confirmed, and the rest stays out.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 10/26/26

The mix runs 45.2% equity, 18.5% alternatives, 15.5% commodity, 14.8% specialty currency and 6.1% fixed income. Monday's chip rally reached it three ways, through Nvidia, the semiconductor fund and the leveraged Nasdaq 100 fund. The commodity fund and two energy positions keep it tied to oil above $100.

One Thing to Watch

Visa's U.S. payment volume growth. It's the cleanest read on whether shoppers kept spending through $100 oil. Visa sits in the financial sector and the Dow, so the answer reaches both systematic strategies.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com