The Fed Speaks at 2:00. Microsoft and Alphabet Answer After the Bell

Wednesday stacks a rate decision and two of the market's largest reports into one afternoon. The index strategy owns all three major indexes in near-equal thirds, so no single report gets the deciding vote.

Brad Roth
October 26, 2026

TL;DR

• The Fed decides Wednesday at 2:00, and Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close that day. Third-quarter GDP and September PCE follow Thursday morning.

• The index strategy runs 34.2% Dow, 33.4% S&P 500 and 32.6% Nasdaq 100. Microsoft sits in all three indexes, Alphabet in two.

• Healthcare is the even-weight strategy's largest sector at 21.2%. Drug demand doesn't wait on a rate decision or a cloud forecast.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:13 AM ET, commodities as of 7:23 AM ET, yields as of 7:13 to 7:25 AM ET, currencies as of 7:16 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.04% at 7,663.00.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.02% at 29,112.25.

• Dow futures are up 0.32% at 52,562.00.

• Russell 2000 futures are up 0.04% at 2,785.60.

Friday was a rotation day. The S&P 500 fell about 0.5% and the Dow lost 1.23%, while the Nasdaq 100 finished flat. Only three of eleven sectors rose. Energy led at 2.60%, then technology at 0.49% and real estate at 0.12%. Consumer staples was the weakest, down 1.92%, after leading Thursday.

• Brent is $109.91, down 1.60%. West Texas is $101.06, down 2.14%.

• Gold is $4,025.12, up 0.43%. Silver is $53.91 and copper is up 0.09%.

• The three-month bill yields 4.139%, the two-year 4.697% and the ten-year 4.982%. The 30-year is 5.309%.

• Euro/dollar is 1.1196. The dollar buys 157.37 yen, up 0.34%. Volatility futures are 19.38. Bitcoin is $80,285.

• The Chicago Fed activity index lands at 8:30 and the Dallas Fed survey at 10:30. Treasury sells two-year notes at 1:00.

THOR Risk Gauge

Neutral, unchanged from last week. Oil is off this morning but still above $100, and the Fed and two megacap reports share one afternoon. The index strategy is fully invested, and the even-weight strategy runs 60.5% in stocks with 40.1% in Treasury bills.

The THOR View

Wednesday is the busiest afternoon of the month. The Fed releases its decision at 2:00. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close, with Alphabet at 4:30. Then GDP and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge land Thursday morning. That's a rate call, two of the largest companies in the market and the Fed's favorite inflation number... inside about 18 hours.

The index strategy owns all three major indexes in near-equal pieces. The Dow is 34.2%, the S&P 500 33.4% and the Nasdaq 100 32.6%. Microsoft sits in all three. Alphabet sits in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 but not the Dow. So Wednesday night reaches about two thirds of the strategy through Alphabet and all of it through Microsoft, in different doses. The Dow brings drugmakers, insurers and banks that don't trade on cloud guidance. Friday showed the balance at work. The Nasdaq 100 finished flat on a day the Dow fell 1.23%.

The even-weight strategy builds the same balance at the sector level. Healthcare is the largest piece at 21.2%. Drug demand doesn't change with the funds rate or a data-center budget, and the sector set records last Tuesday. Technology is 18.8%, and Microsoft is one of its three largest companies. The sector rose 0.49% Friday when eight of eleven fell.

Bills are the other 40.1%, and they don't need a winner on Wednesday. The three-month bill yields 4.139%. Treasury auctions three- and six-month bills at 11:30 and two-year notes at 1:00 today. Whatever the Fed decides, that yield keeps paying while stocks sort out the reports.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 10/23/26

Fully invested in three near-equal pieces. The Dow leads at 34.2% after three straight weekly gains.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 10/23/26

Three sectors plus 40.1% in bills. Healthcare, financials and technology sit within 2.4 points of each other. The system owns trends that have confirmed, and the rest stays out.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 10/23/26

The mix runs 44.7% equity, 18.8% alternatives, 15.7% commodity, 14.8% specialty currency and 6.2% fixed income. Microsoft, Alphabet and Apple are held directly, and the Magnificent Seven fund and the leveraged Nasdaq 100 fund add more of the same names. The dollar fund and the rate hedge give the strategy its own exposure to Wednesday's Fed decision.

One Thing to Watch

Microsoft's cloud growth Wednesday night. It's one of the three largest companies in the technology sector and a member of all three major indexes. Its guidance reaches both systematic strategies through the same name.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com