The Dow Was Up 1.7%. Then Oil Hit $117

Brad Roth
October 25, 2026

TL;DR

• The Dow rose 0.41% on the week and the Russell 2000 2.00%. The S&P 500 slipped 0.47% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.71%, after chip stocks fell 6.7% Thursday.

• Iran threatened civilian targets Friday, and Brent's expiring contract traded near $117. The ten-year yield still fell 11 basis points to 4.988%.

• Healthcare is the even-weight strategy's largest sector at 21.2% after drug stocks hit records. The Fed decides Wednesday, with GDP and inflation data Thursday.

Week in Review

Weekly closes, Friday 10/23/26

• The S&P 500 closed at 7,623.68, down 0.47% on the week.

• The Dow ended at 52,215.16, up 0.41%.

• The Nasdaq Composite finished at 25,955.34, down 0.71%.

• The Russell 2000 closed at 2,775.90, up 2.00%.

• The VIX ended at 19.45 against 19.99 a week ago.

Thursday did the damage. Meta reported Wednesday night. Sales rose 26%, but data-center spending pushed free cash flow negative. Meta also said a new class of non-voting shares would help fund the buildout, per Reuters. The stock fell 7% Thursday. The Philadelphia chip index lost 6.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite 2.6%, its worst day since June 5. The Dow finished that day up 0.02%.

Friday belonged to oil. Iran threatened to strike airports and other civilian targets in neighboring countries if the U.S. and Israel resume strikes, per Investopedia. West Texas rose 4.0% Friday to $103.44, up 2.0% on the week. Brent's expiring December contract traded near $117 late Friday, its highest since late April. January, now the front month, settled at $111.70. The Dow lost 1.23% as American Express fell about 4% after announcing it would cut 5% of its workforce. Through Thursday, the Dow had been up 1.7%.

Under the index, most stocks went up. Eight of eleven sectors gained. Energy led at 1.60%, then healthcare at 1.45%. Communication services lost 4.36% and industrials 1.87%. Technology lost 3.3% Thursday and still finished the week down just 0.13%. The equal-weight S&P 500 rose 1.14%, about 1.6 points ahead of the S&P 500.

Bonds rallied through the oil spike. The ten-year closed at 4.988%, down 11.0 basis points, and the two-year fell 5.4 to 4.682%. Gold dropped 4.1% to $4,010, its second straight weekly loss. Bitcoin ended near $81,200. The University of Michigan's sentiment index finished October at 48.0, about 10% below a year ago.

Allocation Changes

All three strategies came through the week as built. Healthcare and financials, the even-weight strategy's two largest sectors, both finished the week higher.

The index strategy holds the Dow at 34.2%, the S&P 500 at 33.4% and the Nasdaq 100 at 32.6%. The Dow was the best of the three this week and grew from 34.0%.

The even-weight strategy holds healthcare at 21.2%, financials at 20.5% and technology at 18.8%, with 40.1% in Treasury bills. Healthcare grew from 21.0% on its record run.

The actively managed strategy kept all 21 positions. The broad commodity fund grew to 15.7% from 15.4%, and the energy sector fund to 7.4% from 7.3%. The leveraged Nasdaq 100 fund eased to 7.4% from 7.6%.

The Bigger Picture

Two shocks hit in two days, and they hit different stocks. Thursday's was about AI spending. Wall Street now expects big tech to sell stock to fund the next round of data centers, per Reuters. That landed on chipmakers and the largest names in the index. Friday's was about oil, and energy and technology were the only sectors to finish green. A cap-weighted index feels the first kind of shock most, because a handful of names carry the vote.

The even-weight strategy sizes its three sectors near a fifth each. Healthcare is the largest at 21.2%. Drug stocks set records Tuesday, and drug demand doesn't run on data-center budgets or diesel prices. Technology is 18.8%... well under the roughly one-third it carries in the S&P 500. That size kept Thursday's chip rout to a fraction of the portfolio. Financials, at 20.5%, rose 0.68%. The ten-year yields about 31 basis points more than the two-year. Banks earn that gap. Bills make up the other 40.1%, and the three-month yields 4.139%.

The index strategy owns the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 in near-equal thirds. The Dow gained for a third straight week. Drugmakers and insurers carry real weight in it, and they led Tuesday's rally. The Fed decides Wednesday, and the consensus is no change. Third-quarter GDP and September PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, land Thursday morning.

THOR Risk Gauge

Neutral, same as a week ago. Falling yields and gains under the surface of the index help. Oil at a six-month high, Iran's threats and a Fed decision Wednesday keep the read in the middle. The index strategy is fully invested, and the even-weight strategy runs 60.5% in stocks.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 10/23/26

Fully invested in near-equal thirds. The Dow rose for a third straight week and now leads the Nasdaq 100 by 1.6 points of weight.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 10/23/26

Three sectors near a fifth each, with bills at 40%. Healthcare set records and leads.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 10/23/26

The mix runs 44.7% equity, 18.8% alternatives, 15.7% commodity, 14.8% specialty currency and 6.2% fixed income. The commodity fund, the energy sector fund and Exxon add up to 26.5%, and all three grew as crude topped $100.

Weekend Reading

Behind the Ticker — Private Credit Exposure Without the Lockups, with Mike O'Brien of Hilton Capital. O'Brien started in Chapter 11 restructuring at FTI Consulting and covered special situations at Wolfe Research. He joined Hilton Capital Management in 2024. He explains business development companies, lenders to small and mid-sized U.S. firms capped at 2-to-1 leverage, and why their bonds get overlooked next to the stock. He's blunt that BDC bonds aren't a core-bond substitute, and makes the case for them over interval funds with lockups.

Steep bill for AI buildout punishes Meta, other tech favorites (Reuters, October 22). Lewis Krauskopf and Sudeshna Ghoshal on Thursday's selloff. Wall Street now expects big tech to pay for the next round of data centers by selling stock, not just borrowing.

Physical Oil Prices Drop in Mideast as Flows Via Hormuz Hold Up (Bloomberg, October 23). Yongchang Chin and Serene Cheong on the other side of the oil story. Spot Gulf crudes got cheaper as traders found ways through the strait, even as futures climbed.

Consumer sentiment shows cost-of-living frustration (Axios, October 23). Courtenay Brown on the University of Michigan survey. Buying conditions for durable goods fell 18%, and that drove the entire drop in how consumers rate current conditions.

Quote of the Week

"The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money."

— Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter, 2007

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com