The S&P 500 Fell 1.2%. The Average Stock Went Up

Brad Roth
October 23, 2026

TL;DR

• The S&P 500 fell 1.21% Thursday as Meta dropped 6.98%. The equal-weight S&P 500 rose 0.73%, and six of eleven sectors finished higher.

• Healthcare gained 1.32% and financials 1.09%. They're the even-weight strategy's two largest sectors at 21.3% and 20.7%.

• Futures are a touch lower and the two-year yield is up 6.4 basis points. Consumer sentiment and inflation expectations land at 10:00.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:11 AM ET, commodities as of 7:25 AM ET, yields as of 7:16 to 7:27 AM ET, currencies as of 7:21 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are down 0.27% at 7,683.50.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.13% at 29,104.50.

• Dow futures are down 0.63% at 52,735.00.

• Russell 2000 futures are down 0.62% at 2,778.90.

Thursday split in two. The S&P 500 fell 1.21% to 7,663.43 and the Nasdaq Composite 2.60%. The Dow finished up 0.02% at 52,867.98. Six of eleven sectors rose. Consumer staples led at 3.31%, then utilities at 2.07%. Technology was the weakest, down 3.29%, with communication services down 1.42%.

• Brent is $114.61, up 1.27%. West Texas is $100.97, up 1.51%.

• Gold is $4,044.35, down 0.40% and headed for a sharp weekly loss. Silver is down 1.59% at $54.13. Copper is up 1.29%.

• The three-month bill yields 4.155%, the two-year 4.699% and the ten-year 4.997%. The 30-year is 5.310%.

• Euro/dollar is 1.1197. The dollar buys 156.91 yen. The VIX is 19.65. Bitcoin is $81,615.

• France's October business survey came in at 48.4 against a 50.5 forecast. Euro Stoxx 50 futures are down 0.60%.

• Business surveys land at 9:45. Michigan sentiment follows at 10:00, with one-year inflation expectations forecast at 4.7%.

THOR Risk Gauge

Neutral. The index strategy is fully invested across the three major American indexes. The even-weight strategy holds 60.6% in three sectors and 40.0% in Treasury bills. A market that rose under a falling index is a good sign. Brent above $114 and a ten-year back near 5% hold the read in the middle.

The THOR View

The index and the market told two different stories Thursday. The S&P 500 fell 1.21%. The equal-weight S&P 500, which gives all 500 stocks the same say, rose 0.73%. That's a 1.9-point gap in one session. The losses sat in a few very large names. Meta fell 6.98% after its spending update, Nvidia 4.40% and the technology sector 3.29%. In a cap-weighted index those names carry the vote.

The even-weight strategy sizes its sectors in near-equal pieces, so no single name gets that vote. Two of its three sectors finished green. Healthcare rose 1.32% and closed half a percent under its 52-week high. It's 21.3% of the portfolio, the largest piece. Financials gained 1.09% and are 20.7%. Technology is the smallest of the three at 18.7%... well under the share it carries in the S&P 500.

The index strategy saw the same split. The Dow held flat while the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.60%. The Dow is now 34.4% of the strategy and the Nasdaq 100 32.4%. A week ago that gap was 0.4 points. Now it's two. The strategy lets the weights follow prices instead of cutting the winner back to a third. This morning runs the other way, with Dow futures down 0.63% and Nasdaq 100 futures off 0.13%.

Bonds gave back part of Thursday's rally overnight. The two-year is up 6.4 basis points to 4.699%, and the ten-year is back near 5%. Brent at $114.61 keeps pressure on the short end, where the Fed sets the price. The October 28 decision is next Wednesday.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 10/22/26

Fully invested in three pieces. The Dow grew to 34.4% on a flat day while the Nasdaq 100 slipped to 32.4%.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 10/22/26

Three sectors plus 40.0% in bills. Healthcare and financials both gained Thursday, and healthcare widened its lead to 2.6 points over technology. The other seven sectors stay out until their trends confirm.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 10/22/26

The mix runs 44.7% equity, 18.9% alternatives, 15.5% commodity, 14.8% specialty currency and 6.2% fixed income. The commodity fund, the energy sector fund and Exxon add up to 26.1%, with Brent up 1.27% this morning. The leveraged Nasdaq 100 position eased to 7.4% from 8.0% a day earlier.

One Thing to Watch

Michigan's one-year inflation expectations land at 10:00, forecast at 4.7% after 4.6%. A higher number would add to this morning's climb in the two-year yield. The three-month bill moves with that end of the curve, and bills are 40.0% of the even-weight strategy.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com