The Fed Cited Commodity Prices. Crude Broke $100 the Next Morning

The Fed called out rising commodities as it pushed the projections higher, and West Texas is down another 3% under $100 this morning. Every Treasury maturity fell with it, which lands squarely on the most rate-sensitive of six sector positions in the even-weight strategy.

Brad Roth
September 17, 2026

TL;DR

• The Fed hiked a quarter point and the projections moved to 4.1% for year-end, one more increase than June showed. Twelve of eighteen see another increase and four see two.

• The long end went the other way. The ten-year is 4.950% and back under 5%, with every maturity lower overnight.

• West Texas is $99.33, down 3.03%, and Brent $101.74. Jobless claims came in at 196,000 against a 207,000 consensus.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 8:30 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are up 1.12% at 7,708.25.

• Nasdaq 100 futures add 1.46%.

• Dow futures are up 1.06%.

• Russell 2000 futures are up 1.18%.

• Volatility is 18.00, down 3.87%.

• West Texas is $99.33, down 3.03%. Brent is $101.74, down 3.86%.

• Gold is $4,419.17, up 0.72%. Silver is up 1.61% and copper 1.71%.

• The two-year is 4.677% and the ten-year 4.950%. The thirty-year is 5.305%.

• The dollar index is 99.790, down 0.19%. The euro is 1.1489 and the yen 155.42.

• Bitcoin is $77,108, up 1.18%.

Wednesday's close: the S&P 500 fell 0.45%, the Dow 1.21% and small caps 0.43%, while the Nasdaq 100 added 0.03%.

THOR Risk Gauge

Constructive. Both systematic strategies came in near fully invested, at 99% and 96%, and all four American benchmarks are up better than a point this morning. The move that matters is in bonds. Every maturity from one month to thirty years fell overnight, even though the Fed just told you it expects to hike again. Crude giving back $3.10 a barrel is the reason those two facts can sit together.

The THOR View

The hawkish part of Wednesday landed almost entirely on the short end. The two-year rose about eight basis points on the day while the ten-year moved one. This morning both are lower, and the ten-year at 4.950% is under 5% again. That is a bond market asking for less compensation to own duration, not more. Real Estate is 15.7% of the even-weight strategy and takes its discount rate from that end of the curve. Housing starts came in at 1.275 million against a 1.320 million consensus, and pending home sales land at 10:00. The sector gave up 0.60% Wednesday, in line with the index.

Materials is 16.2% and sits on the right side of both halves of this morning's commodity split. It sells metals and it buys energy. Silver is up 1.61%, copper 1.71%, zinc 1.62% and nickel 1.49%, while crude is down 3.03% and heating oil 3.59%. Chemicals, packaging and mining all price off that spread. Warsh named rising commodity prices as part of the case for moving the projections higher, and the barrel started unwinding within the day. Energy stays out. The system owns trends that have confirmed.

Only two American sectors finished green on the decision. Healthcare was one of them, up 0.07%, and it is the largest of the six positions at 16.9%. That is the quiet argument for sizing it first. Jobless claims at 196,000 came in well under consensus and continuing claims fell to 1.73 million. The economy the Fed is tightening into is still running hot. Procedures, admissions and device replacement cycles do not reprice on a quarter point either way. Utilities at 15.3% closed Wednesday exactly flat, and Industrials at 15.6% gave up 0.08%. Three of the six finished the hawkish session ahead of the broad index.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 9/16/26

Half in each benchmark, 99% invested, with the rest in bills. The pair reaches across industrials, financials and healthcare rather than concentrating in one industry. One is capitalization-weighted and the other is not.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 9/16/26

Six sectors sized between 15.3% and 16.9%, with 4.2% in bills earning 4.068% at the three-month point. The span from largest to smallest is 1.6 points, so no single sector sets the result. Two of the six answer to the long end and two sell into commodities.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 9/16/26

The actively managed strategy runs 58.9% in equities, 16.0% in commodities, 14.9% in specialty currency exposure, 5.6% in alternatives and 4.6% in rate hedging. The dollar position is the largest single line and the gold strategy is third at 11.0%. Two of the three largest sit outside the equity market, which is what a portfolio built for a tightening central bank looks like.

One Thing to Watch

The prices paid component of the Philadelphia Fed survey jumped to 48.6 from 40.9 even as crude was breaking $100. That is the awkward pair for the October meeting, which futures currently split almost evenly between another increase and a hold. Materials is the position that feels input costs first, and it is the third largest of the six.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com