The Fed Goes Quiet. Earnings Get the Microphone

No Fed speakers until the October 28 decision, so Meta and the bond market set the tone this week. Nasdaq futures bounce 1.1% after last week's 5.5% loss. The index strategy owns a full third of that bounce.

Brad Roth
October 19, 2026

TL;DR

• The Fed's quiet period runs until the October 28 decision. Meta reports Wednesday, and it's the first big test of who pays for the AI buildout.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are up 1.11% after last week's 5.5% loss. The index strategy owns all three major indexes in even thirds, so it takes part without calling the bounce.

• Treasury sells three- and six-month bills at 11:30. Bills are 40.0% of the even-weight strategy and yield 4.175% this morning.

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Market Pulse

Futures and commodities as of 7:26 AM ET, yields as of 7:20 to 7:26 AM ET, currencies as of 7:09 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.50% at 7,697.70.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are up 1.11% at 29,510.60.

• Dow futures are down 0.15% at 51,924.70.

• Russell 2000 futures are up 0.57% at 2,736.80.

Friday was rough for growth. The S&P 500 fell 1.11% and the Nasdaq 100 2.50%. The Dow lost 0.40% and small caps 1.69%. Six of eleven sectors still rose. Energy led at 2.52%, then utilities at 1.34%. Technology finished last, down 3.02%.

• Brent is $108.51, down 1.23%. West Texas is $98.18, down 0.85%. President Trump waived some sanctions on Russian energy over the weekend.

• Gold is $4,196.00, up 0.36%. Silver is up 1.00% at $57.88.

• The three-month bill yields 4.175%, the two-year 4.719% and the ten-year 5.077%, down 2.3 basis points.

• Euro/dollar is 1.1221, down 0.16% after riots in France. The dollar buys 158.18 yen. Volatility futures are 18.82. Bitcoin is $82,243.

• European stock futures are down more than 1%. China's third-quarter growth came in at 4.5%, a tenth above forecast.

• Homebuilder sentiment lands at 10:00. Bill auctions follow at 11:30.

THOR Risk Gauge

Neutral. The index strategy is fully invested across the three major American indexes. The even-weight strategy holds 60.5% in three sectors and 40.0% in Treasury bills. Futures are green, but the Nasdaq 100 lost 5.5% last week and the ten-year sits above 5%.

The THOR View

The Fed went quiet Saturday. Its blackout runs until the October 28 decision, so no Fed speech will move this market for nine days. That leaves two voices: company earnings and the bond market. Friday's selloff came from the financing side. Investors asked who pays for the data centers, and what the debt costs. Meta reports after Wednesday's close. Its spending plan is the first real answer this week.

The index strategy doesn't have to guess that answer. It owns the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 in even thirds. This morning the Nasdaq 100 bounces 1.11% and the Dow slips 0.15%. A third of the portfolio sits in the index doing the bouncing. Friday showed the other side. The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.50%, while the Dow gave up 0.40%. Even thirds let the portfolio take both days as they come.

Bills are the quiet part of the even-weight strategy, and today they're on the calendar. Treasury auctions three- and six-month bills at 11:30. The last three-month auction cleared at 4.085%. This morning that bill yields 4.175% in the open market. At 40.0% of the portfolio, bills earn that rate every day the equity side does its work. They didn't flinch when the S&P 500 fell 1.11% Friday.

The equity side split three ways Friday. Financials rose 0.45%, and healthcare slipped just 0.27%. Financials beat the S&P 500 by 1.56 points, healthcare by 0.84. Technology fell 3.02% with chips. Together those three sectors are 60.5% of the portfolio, each near a fifth... so no single sector runs the result.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 10/15/26

Fully invested in three near-equal pieces. The spread between the largest and smallest is 0.4 points.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 10/15/26

Three sectors within a point and a half of each other, plus 40.0% in bills. The system owns trends that have confirmed, and the rest stays out.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 10/15/26

The mix runs 45.4% equity, 18.7% alternatives, 15.1% commodity, 14.6% specialty currency and 6.3% fixed income. The energy fund and Exxon add up to 10.3%, and energy led all eleven sectors Friday at 2.52%. The dollar fund is the second-largest position, with the euro lower this morning.

One Thing to Watch

Meta reports after Wednesday's close, and its spending plan speaks for the whole AI buildout. Meta sits in the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500, two of the index strategy's three pieces. Lam Research and Texas Instruments also report this week, and both sit inside the technology sector.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com