The Fed Is Expected to Stand Pat. One-Year Bills Pay 4.51%

The policy rate is 4.00% and every Treasury bill past one month yields more. Bills are the even-weight strategy's largest single position at 39.9%, and they reprice with the front end every time they roll.

Brad Roth
October 28, 2026

TL;DR

• The Fed announces at 2:00, and the consensus is no change at 4.00%. Bills tell a firmer story, climbing from 4.01% at one month to 4.51% at one year.

• Bills are 39.9% of the even-weight strategy, its largest single position. Technology, healthcare and financials split the rest in near-equal pieces.

• Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close. Technology led Tuesday at 1.70%, and Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.40%.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:11 AM ET, commodities as of 7:22 AM ET, yields as of 6:53 to 7:26 AM ET, currencies as of 7:23 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.13% at 7,768.50.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.40% at 29,930.00.

• Dow futures are down 0.25% at 52,448.00.

• Russell 2000 futures are down 0.14% at 2,824.50.

Tuesday belonged to tech and small caps. The S&P 500 rose 0.56%, the Nasdaq 100 1.27% and the Russell 2000 1.15%. The Dow added 0.06%. Five of eleven sectors finished higher. Technology led at 1.70%, then consumer discretionary at 1.04%. Energy was the weakest, down 2.05%.

• Brent is $111.21, up 1.65%. West Texas is $101.57, up 1.67%.

• Gold is $4,059.40, down 0.37%. Silver is off 1.33% at $53.79.

• The one-month bill yields 4.014%, the three-month 4.146% and the one-year 4.513%. The two-year is 4.745% and the ten-year 5.001%.

• Euro/dollar is 1.1125. The dollar buys 157.92 yen. Volatility futures are 18.97. Bitcoin closed Tuesday near $81,400.

• The 30-year mortgage rate fell to 7.37% from 7.41%, per the MBA, and applications rose 3.4%.

• Trade and inventory data land at 8:30, oil inventories at 10:30. The Fed decides at 2:00 and the press conference starts at 2:30.

THOR Risk Gauge

Neutral, unchanged from last week. Tuesday's gains reached small caps, technology and industrials, which helps. A ten-year at 5.00% and Brent back above $111 on Fed day keep the read in the middle. The index strategy is fully invested, and the even-weight strategy runs 60.7% in stocks with 39.9% in Treasury bills.

The THOR View

The consensus for 2:00 is no change, with the policy rate at 4.00%. The bill market is less relaxed. The one-month bill yields 4.014%, the three-month 4.146%, the six-month 4.361% and the one-year 4.513%. Every step out the curve pays more than the Fed rate. That's the market charging for the chance the next move is a hike. The press conference at 2:30 tells us whether it's right.

Bills are 39.9% of the even-weight strategy... the largest single position it owns. They're short, so they roll over every few weeks at whatever the front end pays. A firmer Fed shows up in that piece right away, in higher yields on the next bills it buys. A softer one trims them at the margin. The three-month bill pays 4.146% this morning, whatever the statement says.

The stock side runs in three near-equal pieces. Healthcare is 21.0%, financials 20.3% and technology 19.4%. Technology led all eleven sectors Tuesday at 1.70%. Healthcare and financials both slipped, by 0.06% and 0.25%. Brokers and card networks earn interest on client cash and float, so a firm Fed isn't a problem for the financial piece. Microsoft is one of the technology sector's largest companies, and it reports tonight with Alphabet.

The index strategy runs 33.9% Dow, 33.4% S&P 500 and 33.0% Nasdaq 100. Tuesday paid the Nasdaq 100 side, up 1.27% against the Dow's 0.06%. This morning leans the same way, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.40% and Dow futures down 0.25%. Tonight's reports reach the Nasdaq 100 most, while the Dow's drugmakers, banks and industrials trade on the Fed.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 10/27/26

Fully invested, and the three pieces sit within 0.9 points of each other. Tuesday's Nasdaq 100 rally and a flat Dow both landed in the same portfolio.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 10/27/26

Three sectors near a fifth each, plus 39.9% in bills yielding over 4%. Healthcare closed 1.7% under its 52-week high. The system owns trends that have confirmed, and the rest stays out.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 10/27/26

The mix runs 45.4% equity, 18.6% alternatives, 15.4% commodity, 14.8% specialty currency and 6.0% fixed income. Two positions speak directly to today's decision. The dollar fund gains when the dollar firms, and the rate hedge gains when long yields rise. The leveraged Nasdaq 100 fund grew to 7.9% from 7.6% on Tuesday's tech rally.

One Thing to Watch

The one-year bill after 2:30. It yields 4.513% this morning, about half a point over the policy rate. A firm press conference pushes it higher. That's the stretch of the curve where the even-weight strategy's largest position lives.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com