The Fed's New Chair Speaks at Ten. So Does the American Consumer

Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole keynote at the same minute the August sentiment survey lands, and futures put 36% odds on a rate increase next month. Business activity is running the other way from household mood, and materials and industrials are two of the six sector positions in the even-weight strategy.

Brad Roth
August 28, 2026

TL;DR

• Kevin Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed chair at 10:00 Eastern. Futures put roughly 36% odds on a rate increase at the September 16 meeting, and the European Central Bank is nearly fully priced to raise on September 10.

• August consumer sentiment is expected at 51.0 against 55.2 in July, with one-year inflation expectations rising to 4.3%.

• The Chicago business barometer comes at 9:45 with 57.9 expected against 57.6, a second straight month of expansion.

Market Pulse

As of 7:15 AM ET, 8/28/26

• S&P 500 futures are down 0.07%.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are off 0.31%.

• Dow futures are up 0.08%.

• Russell 2000 futures sit flat.

Thursday closed green across the board. The S&P 500 finished at 7,730.99, up 0.72%, the Nasdaq Composite at 26,541.35, up 1.57%, the Dow at 53,569.44, up 0.20%, and the Russell 2000 at 3,015.67, up 0.33%.

The 10-year Treasury yields 4.686% and the 2-year 4.234%. The 30-year sits at 5.207%. WTI trades at $83.17 and Brent at $88.28. Gold is $4,650.79 an ounce, silver $70.25, up 1.2%, and natural gas $2.890. Volatility closed at 14.47. Bitcoin trades at $79,646 and the euro buys $1.1647 with the dollar index at 99.12.

THOR Risk Gauge

Constructive. Both published strategies stay near fully invested, and volatility closed Thursday at 14.47, near the bottom of its 52-week range. The S&P 500 sits about 1% under its high with the curve positively sloped. What holds it back from outright bullish is the calendar. A new Fed chair's first Jackson Hole keynote, with a 36% hike probability priced, is a wide distribution for one morning.

The THOR View

Kevin Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed chair at ten this morning. The funds rate sits at 3.50% to 3.75% and core inflation hasn't moved off 3.3% in two months. Futures put roughly 36% odds on an increase at the September 16 meeting. That's a live number. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank is nearly fully priced to raise on September 10. Two things make this awkward for him. Expectations are high enough that vagueness moves prices, and the last employment report showed payrolls falling outright.

The University of Michigan survey lands at the same minute Warsh starts talking. August sentiment is expected at 51.0 against 55.2 in July, and the expectations component at 50.6 against 55.4. That's a four-point drop in how Americans describe their own finances. One-year inflation expectations are seen at 4.3% and the five-year read at 3.3%. Households have spent most of a year telling surveyors that prices keep rising faster than the target. The Labor Department also publishes its annual payrolls benchmark revision inside the same ten o'clock window. Last year's took 862,000 jobs off the books.

Business activity isn't sinking with the survey. The Chicago business barometer comes at 9:45 with 57.9 expected against 57.6 in July, a second straight month above the expansion line. That gap between what households say and what companies are buying is where the even-weight strategy does its work. Materials runs 16.5% and industrials 15.9%, the two positions reading straight off industrial demand. Metals agree this morning. Silver trades at $70.25, up 1.2%, platinum is up 2.4% and palladium 4.75%. Healthcare is the largest position at 16.6%, and it doesn't answer to an August sentiment number either.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 8/27/26

The S&P 500 and the Dow each take roughly half the strategy, with a point in short Treasury bills. Both finished Thursday higher, at plus 0.72% and plus 0.20%. One is weighted by market value and one by share price, so a Warsh headline reaches the two of them at different sizes.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 8/27/26

Six sectors are on, each between 15.4% and 16.6%. That's close to even by design, so no single sector decides the morning. The four sectors at zero haven't confirmed a trend the system owns.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 8/27/26

The strategy runs 50.2% in equities, 18.7% in specialty currency exposure, 15.8% in broad commodities and 12.8% in fixed income and rate hedging, with a 2.5% alternative line. A long dollar fund is the largest line and an interest rate hedge is the third, which puts the macro view in currency and duration instead of equity beta.

One Thing to Watch

The ten o'clock hour delivers Warsh, the sentiment survey and the annual payrolls benchmark revision at once. If the revision comes in large and negative, September's hike odds fall quickly and the long end moves first. Real estate is 15.7% of the even-weight strategy, and it has the shortest line to a 30-year yield at 5.207%.

From the same desk — THOR Signals reads the regime on the whole market and any name your clients hold, three horizons, every market evening, with the price where each read turns. See it at thorsignals.com.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com