Nvidia Made $96 Billion in a Quarter. The Fed Is Still Talking About a Hike

Brad Roth
August 27, 2026

TL;DR

• Nvidia reported $96.2 billion of quarterly revenue against roughly $92 billion expected and guided the current quarter to $108 billion. The stock trades at $222.30 before the open, up 6.0%.

• July inflation rose 0.2% for the month against a 0.1% forecast, leaving the annual rate at 3.7% and the core rate at 3.3%. A rate increase is a live question when the Fed meets in three weeks.

• Personal spending rose 0.2% in July, the smallest increase in seven months.

Market Pulse

As of 8:15 AM ET, 8/27/26

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.42%.

• Nasdaq 100 futures add 0.93%.

• Dow futures are unchanged.

• Russell 2000 futures add 0.01%.

Wednesday finished slightly red. The S&P 500 closed at 7,675.70, down 0.02%, the Nasdaq Composite at 26,130.20, down 0.08%, the Dow at 53,463.88, down 0.21%, and the Russell 2000 at 3,005.90, down 0.14%.

The 10-year Treasury yields 4.664% and the 2-year 4.230%, six basis points higher than it was yesterday morning. WTI trades at $82.47 and Brent at $87.33. Gold is $4,653.30 an ounce, silver $69.04 and natural gas $2.914, up 1.4%. Volatility runs 15.02. Bitcoin trades at $79,553, up 1.6%, and the euro buys $1.1648 with the dollar index at 99.19.

THOR Risk Gauge

Bullish. Both published strategies stay near fully invested, six sectors on one side and two American averages on the other, and volatility opens near 15. Inflation came in above forecast Wednesday and the short end of the curve has been repricing since, which puts a September increase back in the conversation. Neither of those decides a construction spread this evenly.

The THOR View

Nvidia's data center business sold $89.0 billion in a single quarter, up 117% from a year ago, and the company guided the current quarter to $108 billion. The same day, Amazon Web Services and Nvidia said they would put another two million graphics processors into service. All of that hardware runs on electricity, and the American grid has to produce it. Utilities is 15.3% of the even-weight strategy. It rose 0.46% Wednesday, on a session when the broad index finished lower and a hotter inflation number pushed the two-year yield higher. A rate-sensitive sector that gains on a day built to hurt it is being bought for its demand rather than its discount rate.

Healthcare is the largest of the six sector positions at 16.7%, and it was the weakest of the six on Wednesday at minus 1.00%, with Eli Lilly down 3.59%. The spending data released the same morning is why the position earns that size. Personal spending rose 0.2% in July, the smallest increase in seven months, and Americans bought fewer goods for the second month running. Less went to gasoline, new cars and recreational vehicles. Medical demand does not track that cycle.

The funds rate sits at 3.50% to 3.75% and core inflation has not moved off 3.3% in two months. That combination is why a hike is on the table rather than a tail risk, and the July minutes already showed support building for one. The two-year note yields 4.230% this morning against 4.17% yesterday morning, so the short end is doing the repricing while the ten-year barely moved. The index strategy runs 99% invested across two American averages, with a point in short Treasury bills. Kevin Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole keynote as Chair Friday at 10:00 Eastern, three weeks ahead of the decision.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 8/26/26

Two American averages split the strategy almost evenly, with a point in short Treasury bills. One is weighted by market value and one by share price, so this morning's semiconductor move reaches them at different sizes. The Nasdaq 100 line sits at zero, where the trend has not confirmed.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 8/26/26

Industrials led the six Wednesday at plus 1.09%, utilities added 0.46% and healthcare gave back 1.00%. The four sectors at zero have not confirmed a trend the system owns.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 8/26/26

The strategy runs 49.8% in equities, 18.9% in specialty currency exposure, 15.8% in broad commodities and 13.2% in fixed income and rate hedging, with a 2.4% alternative line. A long dollar fund is the largest line and an interest rate hedge the third, which puts the macro view in currency and duration instead of equity beta. The semiconductor and large-cap growth lines together run just under 10%, and both open higher this morning.

One Thing to Watch

The Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey at 11:00 Eastern. It is the first regional factory read since the 50% American duties on Canadian goods took effect Wednesday morning, and Ottawa's response list starts September 8. Materials is 16.5% of the even-weight strategy, and chemicals, packaging and metals sit on both sides of that border.

From the same desk — THOR Signals reads the regime on the whole market and any name your clients hold, three horizons, every market evening, with the price where each read turns. See it at thorsignals.com.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com