The Minutes Were Hawkish. The Long Bond Rallied Anyway

Three officials voted to raise rates in July, and the thirty-year yield fell nine basis points once the market read the transcript. Walmart beat on revenue and earnings this morning and raised its outlook for the year.

Brad Roth
August 20, 2026

TL;DR

• The July minutes showed a 9-3 hold, with three officials voting to hike instead. The thirty-year yield fell to 5.194% anyway, and the two-year hasn't moved off 4.19% in three sessions.

• Walmart earned $0.81 adjusted on $187.9 billion of revenue and raised its full-year outlook. U.S. comparable sales grew 2.6%, held back 125 basis points by a new drug pricing rule.

• Healthcare is the largest sector position in the even-weight strategy at 16.9%, and it rose 3.51% Wednesday.

Market Pulse

As of 7:10 AM ET, 8/20/26

• S&P 500 futures are flat.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.11%.

• Dow futures are down 0.13%.

• Russell 2000 futures are off 0.10%.

Wednesday ended a three-session slide. The S&P 500 closed at 7,707.98, up 0.21%, the Dow at 53,463.05, up 0.22%, and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,331.09, up 0.16%. The Russell 2000 led at plus 0.50%.

The 2-year Treasury yields 4.19%, the 10-year 4.653% and the 30-year 5.194%. WTI trades at $86.72, up 2.76%, and Brent at $93.87. Gold is $4,544 an ounce and silver up 1.66%. Natural gas is down 1.99% at $2.758. Volatility runs 15.11. Bitcoin trades near $71,900 and the euro buys $1.1699.

THOR Risk Gauge

Constructive. Both published strategies stay near fully invested, volatility sits at 15.11, and the S&P 500 is 1.4% below its record. The long end came down nine basis points on the day a hawkish Fed transcript reached the market. Three of the six sectors in the even-weight strategy closed higher Wednesday.

The THOR View

The July minutes published at 2:00 PM Wednesday and they were hawkish. The Fed held at 3.50% to 3.75% on a 9-3 vote, with three officials wanting a quarter-point increase, the most unified hawkish dissent in about a decade. The long end went the other way. The thirty-year fell nine basis points to 5.194%, the ten-year fell five to 4.653%, and the two-year didn't move at all, sitting at 4.19% for a third straight session. An inert front end means the move isn't about the Fed's path. It's term premium, and a committee visibly willing to raise rates is a committee less likely to let inflation run. Real estate is 15.7% of the even-weight strategy and rose 0.81% on it.

Utilities closed exactly unchanged Wednesday, and that's the more interesting number. Long Treasuries rose 1.67%, consumer staples added 1.12%, real estate 0.81%. Every rate-sensitive corner got paid. The one usually treated as a bond substitute stood still. Power revenue comes from data-center load, air conditioning and industrial draw under contracts signed years forward, and nine basis points on a long bond doesn't touch a signed contract. Natural gas at $2.758 this morning matters more to that business than the Treasury curve does. Utilities is 15.5% of the even-weight strategy.

Walmart reported before the bell. Revenue was $187.9 billion, up 5.9%, adjusted earnings $0.81 against $0.74 expected, and the full-year outlook went up. U.S. comparable sales grew 2.6% against a 3.5% consensus, with 125 basis points of that gap coming from pharmacy deflation under a drug pricing rule in force since January. Transactions rose 1.5%, so more people shopped. That's the third large retailer in four sessions to beat, and the second in two days to raise guidance. July retail sales fell 0.6%. That same pricing rule runs through the drug supply chain, and healthcare, the largest sector position in the even-weight strategy at 16.9%, rose 3.51% Wednesday with the rule fully known.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 8/19/26

The two broad averages split the strategy almost evenly, with one point in short Treasury bills. The thirty-stock average finished above the growth index Wednesday on healthcare's strength, and owning both sides is how a rotation that size arrives as a quiet number.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 8/19/26

Six sectors span 15.5% to 16.9%, a point and a third top to bottom, next to 4.0% in short Treasury bills. Healthcare pulled further ahead of the group Wednesday and materials was the second strongest at plus 1.43%. Three answer to the long end and three answer to volumes and input costs, so a curve move rarely decides the day.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 8/19/26

The strategy runs 50.0% in equities, 18.8% in specialty currency exposure, 15.9% in broad commodities and 13.2% in fixed income, with a 2.1% bitcoin-strategy line. Long dollar is the largest single line. The commodity position and a dedicated energy holding together account for close to a quarter of the strategy on a morning crude added almost 3%.

One Thing to Watch

Crude. WTI added 2.76% this morning to $86.72 and Brent is back near $94, which puts the energy-into-inflation question straight back in front of a committee that already had three members voting to raise. Materials is 16.1% of the even-weight strategy, and chemicals, industrial gases and packaging pay for that barrel as an input rather than earning on it.

From the same desk — THOR Signals reads the regime on the whole market and any name your clients hold, three horizons, every market evening, with the price where each read turns. See it at thorsignals.com.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com