Walmart Beat, Raised Guidance, and Fell 9%

Brad Roth
August 21, 2026

TL;DR

• Walmart raised its full-year outlook on net sales up 5.9% and the stock still fell 9.15%, its worst week in four years. Slower sales growth and customers trading down against high fuel costs did the damage.

• Gold is up 1.65% at $4,646 this morning, silver 2.32%, copper 2.01% and platinum 2.80%. Materials fell only 0.19% Thursday against 0.87% for the S&P 500.

• Four large chipmakers have shed close to $500 billion in market value since August 14 while six healthcare names added more than $200 billion. Healthcare is the biggest position in the even-weight strategy at 16.7%.

Market Pulse

As of 7:25 AM ET, 8/21/26

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.34%.

• Nasdaq 100 futures add 0.59%.

• Dow futures are up 0.38%.

• Russell 2000 futures lead at plus 0.67%.

Thursday gave back the prior day's bounce. The S&P 500 closed at 7,641.16, down 0.87%, the Dow at 52,759.21, down 1.32%, and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,067.17, down 1.00%. The Russell 2000 fell 1.34%.

The 10-year Treasury yields 4.696% and the 30-year 5.24%, both higher on the day. WTI trades at $87.17 and Brent at $94.05. Gold is $4,646 an ounce and silver $69.69. Natural gas adds 2.38%. Volatility runs 15.66. Bitcoin trades near $77,600, up 8%, and the euro buys $1.1708 with the dollar index at 98.65.

THOR Risk Gauge

Constructive. Both published strategies stay near fully invested, volatility sits at 15.66, and futures are green across all four American indexes. The S&P 500 is about 2% below its record and lower on the week, with the thirty-year at its highest level since 2007. Metals are bid, crude is steady near $87, and the dollar is soft.

The THOR View

Metals had a better Thursday than stocks did, and they're having a better Friday too. Silver rose 2.75% Thursday and adds another 2.32% this morning at $69.69. Gold is up 1.65% at $4,646, copper 2.01% and platinum 2.80%. Materials runs 16.2% of the even-weight strategy and gave up only 0.19% Thursday, against 0.87% for the S&P 500. Long yields rose again this week and the dollar index is down 0.25%. Metals bid while long rates climb is a fiscal story rather than a rate-cut story, and American debt crossed $40 trillion this week.

Walmart reported net sales up 5.9% and raised its full-year outlook. The stock fell 9.15% to $103.84 and is heading for its worst week in four years. The company gave the reason itself. Sales growth slowed and customers are making trade-offs against high fuel costs, with crude at $87.17. The Dow took it hardest and fell 1.32%, the weakest of the four American indexes, because a price-weighted average feels a ten-dollar drop in one name more than a capitalization-weighted one does. The index strategy runs two American averages instead of one, and the broad-market side fell 0.84%.

The bigger move this week sits underneath the indexes. Since August 14, Nvidia, Broadcom, Advanced Micro and Intel have shed close to $500 billion in market value between them. Eli Lilly, Merck, AbbVie, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson and Thermo Fisher added more than $200 billion over the same stretch. Go back to the June 22 semiconductor peak and healthcare is up roughly 16% while the chip index is down close to 20%. Healthcare is the largest of the six sectors at 16.7%. The move is broad rather than one biotech story, with about two-thirds of a hundred-name healthcare screen higher this week. Technology hasn't earned its way back in on three months of trend damage.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 8/20/26

The two American averages split the strategy almost evenly, with one point in short Treasury bills. Thursday separated them by more than four tenths of a point on a single retailer's result. Owning both sides is what keeps one name from setting the day.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 8/20/26

Six sectors span 15.6% to 16.7%, about a point top to bottom, next to 4.0% in short Treasury bills. Real estate was the only one to finish green Thursday at plus 0.20%, and materials was next at minus 0.19%. Healthcare, materials and financials are the three largest, and no two of them answer to the same input.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 8/20/26

The strategy runs 49.6% in equities, 18.8% in specialty currency exposure, 16.0% in broad commodities and 13.3% in fixed income, with a 2.3% bitcoin-strategy line. The long dollar position is still the biggest single line. The blockchain holding rose 2.52% Thursday and bitcoin has added 8% this morning.

One Thing to Watch

Jackson Hole. The symposium runs August 27 to 29, it's Kevin Warsh's first as chair, and Nvidia reports the day before on August 26. What Warsh says about the long end matters more to six near-equal sectors than the capital-spending number does.

From the same desk — THOR Signals reads the regime on the whole market and any name your clients hold, three horizons, every market evening, with the price where each read turns. See it at thorsignals.com.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com