The Nasdaq Is Down Again. The Dow Barely Noticed

Day two of the AI selloff, and the split inside it is widening. The growth benchmark points to another sharp leg lower while the blue-chip average sits near flat. The index strategy walks in spread evenly across all three major benchmarks, and the even-weight build leans on the seven real-economy sectors that don't trade on an AI multiple.

Brad Roth
June 24, 2026

TL;DR

• The tech selloff is into a second session. The growth benchmark fell about 3% Tuesday, futures point to another leg of the same size this morning, and Dow futures sit near flat while money rotates toward defensive names.

• Micron reports after the close, the first real test of whether this week's semiconductor damage is a valuation reset or something deeper. Housing data and PMIs hit before the open.

• The index strategy holds all three major benchmarks at an even third each, the widest spread it runs, the blue-chip third doing the cushioning the growth corner can't this week.

Market Pulse

As of roughly 7:15 a.m. ET, U.S. futures point lower for a second day, the growth names again leading.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are off about 3%, leading the decline for a second straight session.

• S&P 500 futures are down about 1.3%.

• Dow futures sit near flat, off less than 0.1%.

• Russell 2000 futures are modestly lower with the broad move.

• The 10-year Treasury yields near 4.49%, the 2-year near 4.20%, the curve normally sloped.

• WTI crude trades near $73, off about 0.8% and near a four-month low, Brent near $77.

• Gold runs near $4,110, off about 2%, selling alongside stocks.

• The VIX holds near 19.5, up off a complacent low near 17 earlier in the week.

• Bitcoin trades near $62,000, modestly lower with the risk-off move.

• The euro trades near 1.14 with the dollar firmer.

THOR Risk Gauge

Both systematic strategies walk into a second down session near fully invested, the index strategy split evenly across all three major benchmarks and the even-weight build spread across seven real-economy sectors. The diversification is doing real work: across two sessions the blue-chip average has barely moved while the growth benchmark has fallen hard, so the corner being sold is the one held in moderation. The check is the volatility and the calendar, a fear gauge near 20 and Micron reporting tonight into a bruised semiconductor group, so the posture stays well-invested without reaching.

The THOR View

The selloff got a second day, and the split inside it got wider. The growth benchmark fell about 3% Tuesday, futures point to another leg of the same size this morning, and the Dow has barely moved across both sessions. That gap is the entire case for spreading evenly. The index strategy holds all three major benchmarks at a third each, the widest configuration it runs, so the blue-chip third is absorbing what the growth third can't. This is not a call that the Dow leads from here. It is diversification doing what it is built to do when one corner gets sold and the others don't.

The even-weight strategy makes the same argument across more parts. Seven real-economy sectors sit at roughly even size, industrials the second-largest near 14% and materials beside it, the parts of the market that earn on activity and hard assets rather than on an AI multiple. Technology is still the single heaviest position near a sixth of the build, because the trend earned the spot, but the cap means the sector taking the most damage never got to set the outcome. Money is rotating toward classic defensives the system has not confirmed and does not own. What it does own, cyclicals and value spread evenly, is the part holding its footing while the AI trade comes apart.

Energy stays out at zero, and the reason stayed clean this week. Crude sits near a four-month low after the U.S. issued a sixty-day license unlocking Iranian barrels, with Brent slipping alongside it. That is a supply story working in the other direction, not a trend the system has confirmed, so the sector that ran on a war premium and gave it back has nothing to add to a tech-driven selloff.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 6/23/26

All three major benchmarks near a third each, the widest spread the strategy runs, cash near zero. Into a second session led lower by the growth names, the blue-chip third beside the broad market and the growth index is the diversified stance, and it is doing the cushioning this week.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 6/23/26

Seven real-economy sectors at roughly even size, technology capped near a sixth of the build rather than the thirty-plus percent it runs in a cap-weighted index, which is why a tech-led selloff does proportionally less damage here. The three out, Energy, Healthcare and Consumer Staples, are the supply-driven and classic-defensive corners the system has not confirmed, even as defensive names catch a bid this week.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 6/23/26

The actively managed strategy runs roughly 58% equity, 23% commodity, 11% specialty and currency, and 8% fixed income. Into a second day of the growth selloff, the interest-rate hedge and the short-yen position carry the macro offset, while a gold-strategy position stays the single largest weight even as gold sells with stocks. The equity side pairs leveraged growth exposure with commodity and currency positions on the other side of the trade.

One Thing to Watch

Micron reports after the close, and it lands on a semiconductor group that already took heavy damage this week. A clean number could steady the part of the market doing the most to drag the indices lower, while a miss or soft guidance would extend the unwind into a third session. Either way it tests the technology position that remains the single heaviest sector in the even-weight build, even capped near a sixth of the mix.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com