The Ten-Year Is Back Where It Was in 2007

The ten-year closed at 5.116% and Brent is back over $104. Both systematic strategies have a new shape: all three major indexes in one, and technology, financials and healthcare at 20% apiece in the other, with 40% in Treasury bills paying 4.1%.

Brad Roth
September 24, 2026

TL;DR

• The ten-year Treasury closed Wednesday at 5.116%, its highest level since 2007. The S&P 500 fell 0.72% and ten of eleven American sectors finished lower.

• Brent trades $104.94, up 1.80%, and West Texas $93.40. Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.94%.

• The index strategy now splits almost evenly across the S&P 500, the Dow and the Nasdaq 100. The even-weight strategy runs three sectors at 20% each, with the remaining 40% in Treasury bills.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:25 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are down 0.51% at 7,667.00.

• Nasdaq 100 futures fall 0.94% at 30,184.30.

• Dow futures slip 0.29% at 51,363.50.

• Russell 2000 futures are down 0.27% at 2,831.00.

Wednesday was a rates day. The S&P 500 fell 0.72%, the Nasdaq 100 0.84% and the Dow 0.71%. The Russell 2000 lost 1.84%, more than twice the broad index. Energy was the only green sector, up 0.96%. Utilities was last, down 1.92%.

• West Texas trades $93.40, up 1.35%. Brent is $104.94, up 1.80%.

• Gold is $4,299.15, down 0.45%. Silver fell 1.35% and copper rose 0.44%.

• The three-month bill yields 4.138%, the two-year 4.864%, the ten-year 5.120% and the thirty-year 5.436%.

• Euro/dollar is 1.1374 and the dollar buys 158.75 yen. Volatility futures are 17.87. Bitcoin trades $83,488, down 2.51%.

• The Swiss National Bank held at 0%. Germany's Ifo business climate came in at 89.9 against 89.1 expected.

THOR Risk Gauge

Cautiously constructive. The index strategy is 99.7% invested across all three major American indexes. The even-weight strategy is 60% in equities and 40% in bills, which lowers its sensitivity to a morning like this one. The live risk is a ten-year above 5.1% with crude climbing alongside it.

The THOR View

The even-weight strategy came out of its latest rebalance with three sectors and a large bill position. Technology is 20.2%, financials 20.1% and healthcare 20.0%. The other 40.3% sits in Treasury bills. That's the design. It owns the sector trends that have confirmed and parks the rest at 4.1% while it waits. All three sectors it owns finished ahead of the S&P 500 on Wednesday. Technology and financials each lost 0.47% and healthcare 0.64%, against 0.72% for the index.

Technology is back in both strategies for the first time since July. In the index strategy it arrives through the Nasdaq 100 at 33.8%, next to the Dow at 33.2% and the S&P 500 at 33.2%. The tech sector fell about half as much as the Nasdaq 100 on Wednesday, 0.47% against 0.84%. This morning the Nasdaq 100 is the weakest of the four futures, and a 5.12% ten-year is the reason. Long-dated earnings get discounted harder when the risk-free rate climbs. What earned technology its place is the trend underneath, and one session of rates pressure doesn't change a trend.

Strong data drove the rate move. The American flash PMIs came in above expectations Wednesday. Since Wednesday morning the ten-year added about 15 basis points and the two-year about 8, so the curve steepened. The gap between them is now about 26 basis points, up from 19. That spread is what a bank earns between short deposits and longer loans, and it lands on financials at 20.1%. Healthcare, the third sector, answers to neither rates nor oil. Utilities and real estate, the two most rate-sensitive sectors, were Wednesday's two worst, and neither is in the even-weight strategy.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 9/23/26

Fully invested at 99.7%, in three even pieces. The Nasdaq 100 adds the growth leg next to the price-weighted Dow and the cap-weighted S&P 500. Three different ways of weighting the same market.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 9/23/26

Three sectors at an even 20%, one growth, one cyclical and one defensive. The bill position pays 4.1% while the other seven sectors work out their trends. The system owns what has confirmed, and the rest stays out.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 9/23/26

The mix runs 59.1% equity, 15.5% commodity, 14.6% specialty currency and 4.7% fixed income, with 6.0% in alternatives. Two lines are doing the work this morning. The energy position sits under Brent at $104.94, and the rate hedge is built to gain when long yields rise.

One Thing to Watch

The Treasury sells seven-year notes at 1:00 PM ET. Last month's sale cleared at 4.512%, and the five-year now yields 4.993%, so this one likely clears near 5%. A strong bid would calm the long end, and that lands first on technology at 20.2% of the even-weight strategy.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com