Two Fed Officials Wanted a Hike. Bonds Rallied Anyway

The Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% with two dissents for a hike, and the ten-year still fell 4.8 basis points. Healthcare is the even-weight strategy's largest sector going into GDP and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge at 8:30.

Brad Roth
October 29, 2026

TL;DR

• The Fed held 10 to 2, and Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted to raise rates. The ten-year fell to 5.003% anyway, and the one-year bill dropped to 4.469%.

• Alphabet is down 10.8% before the open after its report. Microsoft is up 1.7%, and it sits in the technology sector the even-weight strategy owns.

• GDP and September core PCE land at 8:30. Healthcare, 21.0% of the even-weight strategy, rose Wednesday and sits 1.4% under its 52-week high.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:22 AM ET, commodities as of 7:20 AM ET, yields as of 7:00 to 7:25 AM ET, currencies as of 7:24 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are down 0.14% at 7,733.80.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.88% at 29,549.60.

• Dow futures are up 0.01% at 52,486.00.

• Russell 2000 futures are up 0.44% at 2,852.00.

All four indexes rose Wednesday. The S&P 500 rose 0.34%, the Nasdaq 100 0.60%, the Dow 0.27% and the Russell 2000 0.40%. Six of eleven sectors gained. Technology led at 0.80%, then financials at 0.45%. Utilities were the weakest, down 0.84%.

• Brent is $110.15, down 1.33%. West Texas is $101.50, down 1.25%.

• Gold is $4,047.27, down 0.11%. Silver is off 1.27% at $52.99.

• The three-month bill yields 4.110% and the one-year 4.469%. The two-year is 4.691% and the ten-year 5.003%, down 4.4 and 4.8 basis points.

• Euro/dollar is 1.1148. The dollar buys 157.98 yen. The VIX is 16.97. Bitcoin closed Wednesday at $80,220, down 1.38%.

• Microsoft is up 1.73% before the open at $540.21. Alphabet is down 10.79% at $289.84.

• GDP, core PCE, personal spending and jobless claims all land at 8:30. Treasury sells seven-year notes at 1:00.

THOR Risk Gauge

Neutral, unchanged from last week. The Fed held and long yields eased, which helps. A ten-year at 5.00%, Brent above $110 and two hike dissents keep the read in the middle. The index strategy is fully invested, and the even-weight strategy runs 60.8% in stocks with 39.8% in Treasury bills.

The THOR View

The statement was hawkish on paper. It says inflation "remains elevated" and the economy is "expanding at a strong pace." Two voters wanted a quarter-point hike. The bond market read it the other way overnight. The ten-year closed Wednesday at 5.051% and is 5.003% this morning. The one-year bill was 4.513% before the decision and is 4.469% now.

Healthcare is the even-weight strategy's largest sector at 21.0%. It rose 0.30% Wednesday and closed 1.4% under its 52-week high. That matters on a morning like this. Drug demand doesn't move with core PCE or a capex budget. If 8:30 runs hot and yields jump back over 5.05%, healthcare is the piece least tied to the rate call. A cool number gives the whole stock side room.

The technology piece is 19.4%, and last night's reports split along a clean line. Microsoft is up 1.73%, and it's one of the technology sector's largest companies. Alphabet is down 10.79%. Alphabet lives in communication services, which isn't one of the ten sectors the even-weight strategy uses. So the morning's biggest loser sits outside the sector the strategy owns, and the winner sits inside it.

The index strategy runs 33.8% Dow, 33.3% S&P 500 and 33.0% Nasdaq 100. Alphabet weighs on two of those three. The Dow doesn't own it. That's why Dow futures are flat while Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.88%. Small caps are up 0.44% this morning, which says the selling is in a few large names, not the whole market.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 10/28/26

Fully invested, with the three pieces within 0.8 points of each other. This morning the Dow side offsets the Nasdaq 100 side, and that's the reason the strategy holds all three.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 10/28/26

All three sectors it owns rose Wednesday, led by technology at 0.80%. Utilities, the weakest sector of the day at minus 0.84%, isn't one of them. The system owns trends that have confirmed, and the rest stays out.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 10/28/26

The mix runs 45.4% equity, 18.5% alternatives, 15.4% commodity, 14.7% specialty currency and 6.1% fixed income. The rate hedge grew to 4.2% from 4.1% into the decision. The leveraged Nasdaq 100 fund is 8.0%, up from 7.9%, and it's the position most exposed to this morning's Alphabet move.

One Thing to Watch

September core PCE at 8:30. Economists expect 3.1% from a year ago, up from 3.0%. A hotter number gives the two dissents a stronger case and pushes the ten-year back toward 5.05%. Bills are 39.8% of the even-weight strategy, and they'd roll into those higher yields.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com