The S&P 500 Won the Quarter. The Average Stock Didn't

Brad Roth
September 30, 2026

TL;DR

• The quarter ends at today's close. Through Tuesday the S&P 500 gained 2.3%, the equal-weight S&P 500 lost 1.5% and small caps fell 7.1%.

• Healthcare finished the quarter second of eleven sectors, technology fourth and financials fifth. Those are the three sectors the even-weight strategy owns, each near 20%.

• PCE for August lands at 8:30 with 0.3% expected on the core measure. The ten-year is 5.232% this morning after closing Tuesday at 5.260%, its highest since 2007.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:12 AM ET, commodities, rates and currencies as of 7:15 to 7:25 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are down 0.09% at 7,724.75.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.21% at 30,549.75.

• Dow futures are down 0.19% at 51,606.00.

• Russell 2000 futures are down 0.29% at 2,821.10.

Tuesday was quiet on the surface. The S&P 500 slipped 0.18%, the Dow 0.22% and the Russell 2000 0.36%. The Nasdaq 100 was the only major index to rise, up 0.19%. Four of eleven sectors closed green, led by utilities at 1.17%. Energy finished last, down 0.90%, as crude fell more than 4% on reports that Gulf exports are recovering.

• West Texas trades $90.51, up 1.26%. Brent is $97.56, up 1.46%.

• Gold is $4,208.95, up 0.70%. Silver is down 0.35% at $60.94.

• The three-month bill yields 4.182%, the two-year 4.879%, the ten-year 5.232% and the thirty-year 5.572%.

• Euro/dollar is 1.1356, up 0.12%, and the dollar buys 157.11 yen. Volatility futures are 17.68. Bitcoin trades $83,903, down 0.65%.

• ADP payrolls land at 8:15, with 73,000 expected. PCE and the third estimate of second-quarter GDP follow at 8:30, then Chicago PMI at 9:45. Barkin, Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari speak from 1:30 on.

THOR Risk Gauge

Neutral. The index strategy is fully invested across all three major American indexes. The even-weight strategy holds 60.3% in three sectors and 40.4% in Treasury bills. A ten-year at a 19-year high and a hiking Fed argue for balance. Calmer crude going into PCE helps.

The THOR View

The third quarter ends at today's close, and it split the market in two. Through Tuesday the S&P 500 gained 2.3%. Its equal-weight version lost 1.5%, and small caps fell 7.1%. The ten-year is the main reason. It closed Tuesday at 5.260%, its highest since 2007. Companies that borrow to grow paid for that, and the largest balance sheets mostly didn't. The index strategy owns the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow in near-equal thirds, so it sits with the large companies that did the lifting.

The sector scorecard tells the same story. Healthcare finished the quarter second of eleven sectors, up 7.6% through Tuesday. Technology was fourth at 2.1% and financials fifth at 0.8%. Those are the even-weight strategy's three positions, at 20.3%, 20.1% and 19.9%. The six weakest sectors, led by utilities down 12.4%, all sit at zero. The strategy owns trends that have confirmed, and the rest stays out.

Crude is the cross-asset story going into PCE. West Texas fell more than 4% Tuesday, and it's $90.51 this morning, down from about $96 Monday. Cheaper oil comes too late for the August numbers, but it takes pressure off September's. That matters for the Nasdaq 100, the largest line in the index strategy at 33.8%. Growth stocks carry more of their value in future earnings, so they gain most when inflation cools and yields ease. The Nasdaq 100 rose Tuesday while the other two fell, and it closed 1.4% under its 52-week high.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 9/29/26

Fully invested, in three even pieces. The S&P 500 gained 2.3% this quarter while the average stock lost ground, and all three indexes lean toward the largest companies.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 9/29/26

Three sectors near 20%, all in the top half of the quarter. The other 40.4% sits in bills, with the three-month at 4.182%.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 9/29/26

The mix runs 58.8% equity, 15.1% commodity, 14.7% specialty currency, 6.0% alternatives and 5.3% fixed income. Energy is the second-largest line at 12.9%, and the sector was the best of the quarter, up 15.9% even after Tuesday's drop. The rate hedge grew to 5.3% as the ten-year set a 19-year high.

One Thing to Watch

Core PCE lands at 8:30, with 0.3% expected for August and 3.3% from a year ago. A number at or under that gives the ten-year room to ease from Tuesday's 5.260%. That helps the Nasdaq 100 most, the index strategy's largest line at 33.8%.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com