The Market Went Nowhere Overnight. It Knows What's Coming at 8:30

July core inflation lands an hour before the open, Nvidia reports after the close, and crude is lower for a third straight session. Materials and industrials are two of the six sector positions in the even-weight strategy.

Brad Roth
August 26, 2026

TL;DR

• July core PCE at 8:30 is expected at 3.3% year over year for a second straight month. The second estimate of second-quarter growth comes in the same release at 1.5%, down from 2.1%.

• Dick's Sporting Goods fell 30.7% Tuesday and the broad index still closed higher, up 0.32%.

• Crude keeps falling for a third session, with weekly inventories at 10:30 expected to show another build after 4.4 million barrels last week.

Market Pulse

As of 7:05 AM ET, 8/26/26

• S&P 500 futures are down 0.07%.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are off 0.16%.

• Dow futures are unchanged.

• Russell 2000 futures slip 0.09%.

Tuesday reversed Monday. The S&P 500 closed at 7,677.28, up 0.32%, the Nasdaq Composite at 26,151.30, up 0.66%, the Dow at 53,577.40, up 0.30%, and the Russell 2000 at 3,010.02, up 0.50%.

The 10-year Treasury yields 4.639% and the 30-year 5.17%, ten basis points lower than they were two sessions ago. The 2-year sits at 4.17%. WTI trades at $80.13 and Brent at $85.23. Gold is $4,676.80 an ounce, silver $68.46 and natural gas $2.884, up 2.2%. Volatility closed at 15.45 and runs near 15.7 this morning. Bitcoin trades at $78,764, and the euro buys $1.1669 with the dollar index at 99.03.

THOR Risk Gauge

Bullish. Both published strategies stay near fully invested, six sectors on one side and two American averages on the other. Long yields are ten basis points lower across two sessions and volatility closed under 15.5. Two events resolve inside twelve hours, and neither one decides a strategy built this wide.

The THOR View

Nvidia reports after the close, with consensus near $91.9 billion of quarterly revenue and $2.08 a share. Tuesday showed how much of a session one company can supply. The broad index rose 0.32% while technology added 0.94% and semiconductors 1.65%, and five of the eleven American sectors moved less than a third of a percent. The index strategy owns that report twice, in two different sizes. A capitalization-weighted index of five hundred names counts the company at $5.16 trillion. A price-weighted average of thirty counts it at a $213 share price. Same report, two very different numbers on the other side of it.

Crude is lower for a third straight session, and it is falling through news that should be lifting it. Treasury announced expanded sanctions against Iran on Monday and oil sold off anyway. Energy was the weakest American sector Tuesday at minus 1.66%. Cheaper energy reaches materials from the input side rather than the revenue side, and materials is 16.4% of the even-weight strategy. Chemicals, packaging and industrial gases buy fuel and feedstock. Energy itself stays out, because a commodity selling off into supportive headlines has not confirmed a trend.

The 8:30 release carries more than the inflation number. Headline PCE is expected at 3.6% against 3.7% in June. The same window brings July durable goods orders, where the line that matters is non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, expected up 0.9% after 0.9%. That is the capital spending number, and it lands on industrials, 15.7% of the strategy and the only one of the six sector positions that fell Tuesday. Slower growth with core inflation stuck at 3.3% is the harder version of this year, and Kevin Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole keynote as Chair on Friday.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 8/25/26

Two American averages split the strategy almost evenly, with a point in short Treasury bills. Both are broad enough to take tonight's report without depending on it. The Nasdaq 100 line sits at zero, where the trend has not confirmed.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 8/25/26

Healthcare leads the six sector positions at 16.8% and utilities anchors them at 15.3%. Every one of the six sits inside a point and a half of the others, so no single sector report sets the day for the strategy. Four of the six rose Tuesday.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 8/25/26

The strategy runs 49.9% in equities, 18.9% in specialty currency exposure, 15.8% in broad commodities and 13.0% in fixed income and rate hedging, with a 2.5% bitcoin-strategy line. A long dollar fund sits at the top and an interest rate hedge third, so the macro risk lives in currency and duration. The semiconductor and large-cap growth lines together run just under 10% into tonight's report.

One Thing to Watch

The two-year and five-year note auctions at 1:00 PM Eastern, hours after the inflation number. The last two-year cleared at 4.315% and the note trades at 4.17% this morning, so buyers get asked to take less yield than the last group did. Utilities is the smallest of the six sector positions at 15.3%, and it discounts off the same curve those auctions reprice.

From the same desk — THOR Signals reads the regime on the whole market and any name your clients hold, three horizons, every market evening, with the price where each read turns. See it at thorsignals.com.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com