The Dow Was the Only Index That Closed Green. Crude Just Lost Another 3%

Four housing reports and a consumer confidence read land before ten this morning, and long yields are lower for a second straight session. Real estate and financials are two of the six sector positions in the low volatility strategy.

Brad Roth
August 25, 2026

TL;DR

• Monday was a defensive session. The Dow rose 0.26% while the S&P 500 fell 0.28%, the Nasdaq Composite 0.77% and the Russell 2000 0.76%.

• The housing slate runs all morning. July building permits at 8:00, the June Case-Shiller and FHFA price indexes at 9:00, and July new home sales alongside August consumer confidence at 10:00.

• Crude keeps falling. WTI is $82.43 and Brent $88.10, both off about 3% this morning after losing 2% Monday.

Market Pulse

As of 7:10 AM ET, 8/25/26

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.43%.

• Nasdaq 100 futures add 0.89%.

• Dow futures are up 0.40%.

• Russell 2000 futures gain 0.60%.

Monday split the American market. The Dow closed at 53,417.16, up 0.26%, and it was the only one of the four to finish higher. The S&P 500 ended at 7,652.86, down 0.28%, the Nasdaq Composite at 25,980.19, down 0.77%, and the Russell 2000 at 2,995.08, down 0.76%.

The 10-year Treasury yields 4.667% and the 30-year 5.203%, both lower for a second morning. The 2-year is 4.221%. WTI trades at $82.43 and Brent at $88.10. Gold is $4,695 an ounce and silver $67.82. Volatility runs 15.81. Bitcoin trades near $79,260, up 22% over the past week, and the euro buys $1.1663, with the dollar index at 99.02.

THOR Risk Gauge

Bullish. Futures are green across all four American indexes, long yields have come off for a second straight morning, and volatility sits under 16. Both published strategies stay near fully invested, with six sectors on one side and two American averages on the other. The check on that comes Wednesday, when the Fed's preferred inflation gauge publishes at 8:30 and Nvidia reports after the close.

The THOR View

Housing owns this morning. July building permits come at 8:00 against a 1.443 million consensus, after a 2.6% decline in June. The June Case-Shiller twenty-city index lands at 9:00 with expectations of 1.8% annual price growth, and July new home sales follow at 10:00 near 620,000. Every one of those reports describes a market that transacted when the ten-year was higher than it is now. Real estate is 15.8% of the low volatility strategy and rose 0.55% Monday, and the ten-year at 4.667% is the number that eventually reaches a mortgage quote.

Financials was the second-best American sector Monday at plus 1.29%, on a session when the broad index fell. It sits at 16.2%, the second-largest of the six sector positions. The curve does not explain the move. The spread between the two-year and the ten-year is 45 basis points this morning, down from 52 a week ago, so the curve flattened while the sector got bid. That is a defensive bid rather than a rate trade, and Treasury sells two-year paper at 1:00 this afternoon.

Five of the six sectors in the strategy finished Monday higher. Financials added 1.29%, utilities 1.05%, real estate 0.55%, materials 0.07% and healthcare 0.05%, with industrials down 0.69%. The two weakest American sectors of the session were technology at minus 1.78% and energy at minus 0.83%, and neither has confirmed a trend the system owns. Six positions spanning 15.2% to 16.8% means no single sector decides a day that splits like that one did.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 8/24/26

The two American averages split the strategy almost evenly, with a point in short Treasury bills. Monday is the argument for running both instead of one. Thirty industrial names weighted by price rose while five hundred weighted by market value fell.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 8/24/26

Six sectors run between 15.2% and 16.8%, a point and a half top to bottom, next to 4.0% in short Treasury bills. Four of the six are rate-sensitive in some form, which is why a second morning of falling long yields reaches most of the strategy.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 8/24/26

The strategy runs 49.5% in equities, 18.8% in specialty currency exposure, 16.0% in broad commodities and 13.3% in fixed income and rate hedging, with a 2.5% bitcoin-strategy line. The largest single position is a long dollar fund and the third largest is an interest rate hedge, which puts the macro risk in currency and duration rather than in stock selection. The energy sector line is the fourth largest and the biggest single equity sector exposure, on a morning crude is down 3%.

One Thing to Watch

The two-year note auction at 1:00 PM Eastern. The last one cleared at 4.315% and the note trades at 4.221% this morning, so the auction is a direct read on what buyers want to be paid at the front of the curve. Financials is the second-largest sector position and funds itself there.

From the same desk — THOR Signals reads the regime on the whole market and any name your clients hold, three horizons, every market evening, with the price where each read turns. See it at thorsignals.com.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com